航空业利润微薄 亚太地区客运需求强劲

Core Insights - The airline industry is facing a significant challenge with profit margins that are insufficient to cover capital costs, highlighting the need for urgent solutions [1][6] - The International Air Transport Association (IATA) predicts a record net profit of $41 billion for global airlines in 2024, with a net profit margin of 3.9% [2][8] - The industry is expected to generate total revenue of $1.054 trillion in 2026, reflecting a 4.5% year-over-year growth [2][8] Financial Performance - Airlines are projected to achieve an average net profit of $7.90 per passenger in 2026, down from a historical high of $8.50 in 2023 [2][8] - Passenger traffic is expected to reach 5.2 billion in 2026, a 4.4% increase from 2025, while cargo volume is anticipated to grow by 2.4% to 71.6 million tons [2][8] - The airline industry contributes nearly 4% to global GDP and supports 87 million jobs [1][7] Cost and Supply Chain Challenges - Fuel costs are expected to decrease slightly to $252 billion in 2026, but this will be offset by rising non-fuel costs, maintaining pressure on overall operational expenses [3][10] - The aging aircraft fleet and supply chain disruptions are leading to increased maintenance costs and rental prices, complicating the industry's recovery [3][10] - The backlog of aircraft orders is projected to continue growing, indicating persistent supply constraints that will impact financial performance in the short term [5][11] Regional Insights - The Asia-Pacific region is expected to lead in passenger demand growth, with a projected load factor of 84.4% in 2026, driven by strong demand from China and India [5][12] - Europe is anticipated to have the best financial performance among regions, while Africa's growth potential is limited by low GDP per capita [5][12]