食品饮料板块抹平2021年以来的所有涨幅，何时反转？

Core Viewpoint - The food and beverage sector has been experiencing a prolonged adjustment period, with prices of key products like Moutai declining, leading to a significant drop in the sector's index close to the levels seen at the end of 2019 [1][3]. Group 1: Reasons for Continuous Adjustment - The food and beverage sector has been in continuous adjustment since early 2021, lasting over four years, resulting in a significant clearing of positions and nearly erasing all gains since 2021 [1]. - Various interpretations of the adjustment reasons include valuation digestion, foreign capital outflow, macroeconomic downturns, low price cycles, and weakened demand in the liquor sector [3]. Group 2: Current Position of the Food and Beverage Sector - As of Q3 2025, the allocation of the food and beverage industry in public fund heavyweights has decreased to 6.4%, similar to levels seen in 2017 [4]. - The PE-TTM of the food and beverage ETF (515170.SH) is currently at 20.15 times, which is below 95% of the time over the past decade, indicating a significant deviation from the mean [4]. - Leading companies in the food and beverage sector emphasize shareholder returns, with many offering dividend yields above 4% [4]. - Historical trends show that sectors experiencing three to four years of decline often see a reversal, as evidenced by the recent performance of sectors like non-ferrous metals and chemicals [4]. Group 3: Indicators for Potential Reversal - The stabilization of the consumer sector depends on the recovery of domestic demand, which is closely linked to improvements in household income and employment [7]. - Past trends indicate that a recovery in corporate profits often precedes improvements in the labor market and income levels, suggesting a potential turnaround in the food and beverage sector [7]. - Key indicators for the liquor segment include the stabilization of Moutai prices and the narrowing of distributor losses, which could signal a recovery [7]. Group 4: Investment Opportunities - The food and beverage ETF (515170.SH) serves as a useful tool for individual investors to capture potential reversal opportunities in leading companies within the sector [8]. - This ETF includes major players across various sub-sectors such as liquor, dairy, soft drinks, and snacks, making it a low-threshold option for investors looking to capitalize on sector recovery [9].