2026年资产配置策略 创金合信基金魏凤春：锚定盈利、聚焦中游、工具适配

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of focusing on the cyclical resonance of the Kondratiev and Juglar cycles to capture long-term trend opportunities in asset allocation for 2026 [1][18] - It advocates for a defensive base using high-quality fixed-income assets in a low-interest-rate environment to hedge against inventory cycle risks [1][18] - The article suggests that structural opportunities should be prioritized over total volume, avoiding real estate adjustments and traditional capacity clearance while embracing policy guidance and technological iteration [1][18] Strategy Implementation Rules - Clear planning for the next year's strategy is essential, balancing "strategy" and "action" to achieve the highest level of execution [19] - Understanding asset pricing fundamentals is necessary but not sufficient; strategies must focus on future pricing rather than past norms [20] - The core of investment lies in balancing risk and return, with a disciplined approach to risk management being paramount [20] 2025 Strategy Review - The restructuring of risk premiums was a significant change in asset allocation for 2025, transitioning from "conflict premium" to "repair premium" due to the stabilization of US-China trade tensions [22] - AI+ has emerged as a core technology driving structural opportunities across various sectors, enhancing production efficiency and demand scenarios [23] - A supportive funding environment characterized by abundant liquidity has facilitated the concentration of capital in high-certainty and high-growth areas [24] 2026 Asset Allocation Strategy - The risk premium for Chinese assets is expected to continue its downward trend, supported by the "15th Five-Year Plan" and adjustments in US global competition strategies [27] - Liquidity conditions are shifting from abundance to structural adaptation, with a focus on high-certainty sectors [28] - The alignment of inflation and profitability is expected to highlight the value of yield strategies, making fixed-income assets a core choice for asset allocation [29] - The focus will shift from total economic volume to structural opportunities, with fiscal policy expected to play a more significant role than monetary policy [30] - The narrative-driven trading approach is anticipated to weaken, with market pricing returning to profitability verification as the core driver [31] - The strategy will evolve towards a focus on midstream industries, driven by policies that constrain supply and enhance profitability [32] 2026 Asset Allocation Conclusions - The effectiveness of the 2026 asset allocation strategy is rooted in the threefold resonance of declining risk premiums, rising profitability, and structural differentiation [14] - The allocation will emphasize yield strategies while focusing on midstream manufacturing and technology-enabled sectors [14] - Industry selection will hinge on three dimensions: certainty of profitability recovery, overseas business share, and adaptability to technological innovation [15] - Tools like ETFs will remain efficient vehicles for implementing strategies and capturing structural opportunities in niche areas [16]