华泰期货：哈塞特称美联储降息空间充足，贵金属或震荡偏强

Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates for the third consecutive time amid internal disagreements, with officials likely to signal a pause afterward [2][13] - The CME FedWatch Tool indicates that the market has priced in a 25 basis point rate cut [2][13] - Kevin Hassett, Director of the White House National Economic Council, believes there is significant room for further rate cuts [2][13] - President Trump stated that his support for immediate large rate cuts will be a "litmus test" for selecting the new Fed Chair and mentioned potential adjustments to tariff policies to help lower some commodity prices [2][13] Futures Market and Trading Volume - On December 9, 2025, the main gold contract opened at 958.04 CNY/gram and closed at 951.54 CNY/gram, a change of -0.75% from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 41,087 contracts [3][14] - The main silver contract opened at 13,726.00 CNY/kilogram and closed at 13,607.00 CNY/kilogram, a change of -0.72%, with a trading volume of 1,309,030 contracts [3][14] Bond Yield and Spread Monitoring - On December 9, 2025, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond was 4.184%, unchanged from the previous trading day, with a 10-year and 2-year yield spread of 0.573%, a decrease of 4.4 basis points [4][15] Gold and Silver Holdings and Trading Volume Changes - On December 9, 2025, the Au2602 contract saw a decrease of 1,520 long positions and a decrease of 933 short positions, with total trading volume for gold contracts at 291,806, down 21.77% from the previous day [5][16] - In silver, the Ag2602 contract saw a decrease of 6,943 long positions and 7,051 short positions, with total trading volume for silver contracts at 2,048,908, down 33.98% from the previous day [5][16] ETF Holdings Tracking - As of the last trading day, gold ETF holdings were 1,049.11 tons, unchanged from the previous day, while silver ETF holdings decreased by 36 tons to 15,889 tons [6][18] Market Strategy - For gold, a cautiously bullish outlook is suggested, with expectations of a fluctuating price range between 940 CNY/gram and 980 CNY/gram due to market pricing in potential unexpected easing [9][21] - For silver, a neutral outlook is indicated, with prices expected to maintain a fluctuating pattern, but caution is advised regarding potential price declines following new highs due to macroeconomic easing [10][22]