Core Viewpoint - The Chinese large-scale energy storage industry is transitioning from a "policy-driven" model to a "market-driven" model, with commercial models becoming clearer and application scenarios diversifying, entering a new phase of large-scale and high-quality development [1] Group 1: Market Trends - The domestic new energy storage bidding scale reached 205.30 GWh from January to October 2025, a year-on-year increase of 45%, with central and state-owned enterprises' procurement scale increasing by 61% year-on-year, driving sustained high growth in installed capacity [1] - The supply-side leading battery manufacturers are operating at near full capacity, and the supply-demand tightness is expected to continue until the second quarter of 2026 [1] Group 2: Business Model Evolution - Before the "Document 136," the value of strong matching projects was primarily derived from "obtaining new energy road permits," and the value of energy storage was not fully realized. After the "Document 136," independent energy storage can leverage "peak-valley price arbitrage + capacity market + ancillary services" to demonstrate its true value [2] - Economic assessments of independent energy storage in seven provinces indicate that the internal rate of return (IRR) on capital can exceed 10% in regions like Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang, and Hebei, while Shanxi, Shandong, and Gansu can achieve rates above 6.5% [2] Group 3: Demand Forecast - The introduction of capacity pricing policies is expected to create a short-term rush for installations, with independent energy storage likely to experience a surge during the policy window period [3] - The theoretical installation space for independent energy storage supported by reduced electricity costs from the generation side is estimated to be around 158 GW/634 GWh for 2026-2027 [3] - From 2027 onwards, as the electricity market matures and new energy installation scales increase, the demand for new energy storage will shift from passive policy stimulation to endogenous demand, primarily driven by active storage on the generation side and multi-scenario applications on the load side [3] - The total commercial configuration demand for energy storage during the 14th Five-Year Plan period is expected to be between 1.5-1.7 TWh (including pumped storage), with a compound annual growth rate exceeding 20% [3]
中金：中国独立储能建设加速 大型储能行业转向“市场化驱动”
智通财经网·2025-12-10 01:26