国际航协预计2026年航司盈利创新高，但运一位旅客赚得不如卖一个iPhone手机壳

Core Insights - The International Air Transport Association (IATA) forecasts that global airlines will achieve a total net profit of $41 billion in 2026, up from $39.5 billion in 2025, marking a historical high [1] - Total industry revenue is expected to reach $1.054 trillion in 2026, representing a 4.5% increase from $1.008 trillion in 2025, with passenger traffic projected to hit 5.2 billion, a 4.4% growth from 2025 [1] - The average net profit per passenger is estimated at $7.90, down from the historical peak of $8.50 in 2023, indicating a thin profit margin compared to other industries [1] Financial Performance - The fuel cost for 2026 is projected to slightly decrease to $252 billion, down 0.3% from $253 billion in 2025, while non-fuel costs are expected to rise to $729 billion, a 5.8% increase from $689 billion in 2025 [1] - The average age of aircraft has surpassed 15 years, reaching a historical high, which is attributed to supply chain challenges affecting fleet renewal [2] Regional Insights - The Asia-Pacific region is estimated to generate a net profit of $6.6 billion in 2026, driven by increased regional tourism and a growing middle class, although the average profit per passenger in this region is the lowest at $3.20 [2] - The Middle East has the highest average profit per passenger at $28.60, followed by Europe at $10.90, North America at $9.80, and Latin America at $5.70 [2] Cargo Insights - Air cargo volume is expected to reach 71.6 million tons in 2026, a 2.4% increase from 2025, with cargo yield remaining stable, only slightly decreasing by 0.5% [3] - The demand for air cargo is bolstered by strong e-commerce and semiconductor transport needs, despite a decline in exports from China to the U.S. [3]