国泰君安期货：白银首破60美元！FOMC鹰鸽大战今夜上演？

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming FOMC meeting on December 10, 2025, is highly anticipated, with expectations of a 25 basis point rate cut, but the focus will be on details that may create a "differential expectation" in the market [3][14]. Group 1: Dot Plot Insights - The dot plot serves as a "rate expectation chart," reflecting the anonymous voting results of Federal Reserve officials regarding future interest rate trends [4][15]. - Each point on the dot plot represents an official's view on the "reasonable" interest rate level for specific years, indicating potential future monetary policy directions [4][15]. - Changes in the dot plot, particularly if more officials support additional rate cuts, could catalyze a new market trend in precious and base metals [6][17]. Group 2: Policy Statement and Powell's Tone - The language used in the post-meeting policy statement and Chairman Powell's comments are crucial, with hawkish phrases potentially unsettling the market [7][18]. - If Powell indicates signs of labor market weakness or expresses confidence in controlling inflation, it may reinforce market expectations for a more accommodative policy [7][18]. - Subtle shifts in wording can significantly impact market interpretations of future rate paths and influence the broader commodity market [7][18]. Group 3: Internal Discrepancies - The voting results from the FOMC meeting will reveal the level of internal consensus; multiple dissenting votes may indicate significant divisions within the committee [8][19]. - A unified voting outcome suggests broad support for the current policy direction, which can stabilize market expectations regarding the rate cut cycle [8][19]. - Smaller discrepancies within the committee typically lead to lower market volatility due to reduced policy uncertainty [8][19]. Group 4: Market Implications - The FOMC meeting signifies a shift from "betting on rate cuts" to "examining details," emphasizing the importance of the dot plot, policy statement tone, and internal voting discrepancies [9][19]. - The anticipated 25 basis point cut may already be priced in, and any unexpected signals could introduce new volatility in interest-sensitive assets [9][19].