国际航协：全球飞机交付缺口超5300架 供需结构性矛盾六年内难缓解

Core Insights - The International Air Transport Association (IATA) reports that new aircraft deliveries are expected to rebound by the end of 2025, with accelerated production in 2026, but demand will exceed the availability of aircraft and engines due to structural imbalances that will not be resolved until 2031-2034 [1][2] - There is currently a delivery gap of over 5,300 aircraft, with backlogged orders exceeding 17,000, which is nearly 60% of the active fleet, compared to a historical norm of 30%-40% [1][2] - The average age of the fleet has risen to 15.1 years, with passenger fleets at 12.8 years and cargo fleets at 19.6 years, while over 5,000 aircraft remain grounded despite the severe shortage of new planes [1] Delivery Delays - Key reasons for delivery delays include faster fuselage production compared to engine capacity, significant extensions in the certification period for new aircraft models, increased tariffs on related products, a shortage of skilled labor, and the inherent fragility of the aviation supply chain [2] - The certification period for new aircraft has extended from 12-24 months to 4-5 years, particularly affecting the update of long-haul wide-body fleets [2] - The aging fleet is slowing improvements in fuel efficiency, which historically improved by 2.0% annually but is expected to drop to 0.3% in 2025 and 1.0% in 2026 [2] Financial Impact - Supply chain bottlenecks are projected to cost the global aviation industry over $11 billion in additional costs by 2025 [3] - Recommendations for the industry include optimizing aftermarket mechanisms, enhancing supply chain visibility, strengthening data empowerment, and expanding maintenance and parts replacement capabilities [3]