苯乙烯：供需紧平衡 但上方空间受限

Market Overview - On December 9, the styrene market in East China experienced slight fluctuations, with limited port arrivals leading to a forecasted decline in port inventory. The basis rose and then fell, while downstream factory profits were compressed, resulting in a strong resistance to high prices and a decline in trading atmosphere. Styrene industry profits remained acceptable, and Lianyungang Petrochemical resumed production ahead of schedule [1][2]. Profit Analysis - As of December 9, the profit for non-integrated styrene units was approximately 154 yuan per ton [2]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Styrene supply: As of December 4, the overall production of styrene was 342,400 tons, an increase of 7,700 tons, with an operating rate of 68.85%, up by 1.56% [2]. - Styrene inventory: As of December 8, the total port inventory of styrene in Jiangsu was 146,800 tons, a decrease of 13,800 tons from the previous period; the commodity inventory was 87,800 tons, down by 8,600 tons [2]. - Downstream utilization rates: As of December 4, the EPS capacity utilization rate was 56.36%, up by 1.61%; the PS capacity utilization rate was 59.0%, up by 1.4%; the ABS capacity utilization rate was 68.3%, down by 2.9% [2]. Market Outlook - There is an expectation of increased planned and unplanned maintenance for styrene units. However, with profits continuing to recover, the overall operating rate may see a slight increase. The resumption of production by Guoen Ruihua may maintain overall supply pressure. Some downstream operations are affected by cold weather, leading to reduced operating loads, compounded by high inventory and profit pressures, limiting demand support. Styrene exports are expected in December, and port inventory may continue to decrease. Overall, the supply-demand structure for styrene is tight, but due to weak cost support and seasonal demand decline, the upward potential for styrene prices is limited. Future attention should be on unit changes and actual export transactions. In the short term, the spot market is characterized by a clear tug-of-war between bulls and bears, with the market likely influenced by oil prices and macroeconomic disturbances. The strategy suggests a bearish outlook for the short-term EB01 [3].