PTA：供需预期偏弱且油价偏弱 PTA短期震荡偏弱

Market Overview - On December 9, PTA futures experienced fluctuations and a downward trend, with a general atmosphere in the spot market being average and spot basis strengthening. Some polyester factories concentrated on replenishing stocks. Transactions for December goods were noted between 01-25 to 28, with some slightly higher at 01-20 to 22, and the price negotiation range was between 4610 to 4650. The mainstream spot basis was at 01-26 [1] Profitability - As of December 9, the PTA spot processing fee was around 185 yuan/ton, while the processing fees for TA2601, TA2603, and TA2605 were 203 yuan/ton, 247 yuan/ton, and 270 yuan/ton respectively [2] Supply and Demand - Supply: As of December 5, PTA operating rates remained stable at 73.7% - Demand: As of December 5, polyester operating rates slightly increased to 91.8% (+0.3%). On December 9, the price of polyester filament showed local adjustments, with overall production and sales being weak. Demand is gradually weakening, but supply of polyester filament has increased in December. Downstream orders are insufficient, and export orders have also declined, leading to a gradual increase in inventory, with no immediate improvement on the raw material side, indicating a likely downward trend in polyester filament prices [3] Market Outlook - In December, PTA maintenance is still relatively concentrated, and the expected decline in polyester operating rates due to reduced domestic and external demand is postponed. Additionally, following the cancellation of India's BIS certification, PTA export expectations have increased, leading to an anticipated improvement in PTA supply and demand, with a phase of basis repair for PTA. The balance sheet indicates a tight supply and demand expectation for PTA in December, but overall expectations for the first quarter are relatively loose, suggesting limited space for basis repair. In terms of absolute prices, the medium-term outlook for PTA supply and demand is weak, with oil price support also being weak, indicating a weak and fluctuating trend for PTA absolute prices. The strategy suggests that TA may fluctuate in the range of 4500 to 4800 in the short term, with low positions in TA5-9 [4]