英镑日内窄幅震荡 央行政策分化成关键指引

Core Viewpoint - The GBP/USD exchange rate is experiencing a narrow fluctuation, influenced by rising expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve, which has led to a decline in the dollar index and provided passive support for the pound [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - The CME FedWatch tool indicates an approximately 89% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut to 3.50%-3.75%, a significant increase from 63% a month ago, reflecting market sentiment towards monetary easing [1] - The OECD has raised its growth forecast for the UK, enhancing confidence in the medium-term resilience of the UK economy [1] - The UK Chancellor announced a tax adjustment plan of approximately £26 billion per year, which addresses the fiscal gap and provides a risk buffer, improving market confidence [1] Group 2: Inflation and Monetary Policy - The UK's October CPI data decreased from 3.8% to 3.6%, leading to increased market expectations that the Bank of England may initiate a rate cut cycle next week, which limits the upward potential of the pound [1] - The market is currently cautious, awaiting key employment-related data such as the US ADP employment change and JOLTS job openings, which are expected to drive new trading momentum [1] Group 3: Technical Analysis - The GBP/USD has rebounded from the psychological level of 1.3000 and is currently above the 100-day moving average (1.3300), with the moving average system providing support [2] - Resistance is noted in the range of 1.3348 (Bollinger Band upper limit) to 1.3400, while key support levels are at 1.3300 and 1.3260, with a potential decline to 1.3180 if 1.3260 is breached [2] - The short-term outlook for GBP/USD will revolve around the policy differences between the US and UK central banks, with potential for high-level fluctuations or expanded upward movement if the Fed signals a dovish stance [2]