大豆蛋白：维持弱势
Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-12-10 02:30

Core Viewpoint - The USDA's December supply and demand report presents neutral data, with minor adjustments to the U.S. soybean balance sheets for the 2024/25 and 2025/26 seasons, leading to continued price declines due to poor export prospects [3][8]. U.S. Soybean Supply and Demand - The 2024/25 U.S. soybean balance sheet shows a slight adjustment with imports reduced from 29 million bushels to 27 million bushels, exports down from 1,882 million bushels to 1,875 million bushels, and residuals increased from 32 million bushels to 37 million bushels, keeping ending stocks unchanged at 316 million bushels [3][8]. - The 2025/26 balance sheet remains unchanged, with ending stocks at 290 million bushels, slightly below market expectations of 300 million bushels [3][8]. South American Soybean Supply and Demand - Brazil's 2025/26 balance sheet maintains production at 175 million tons, with imports adjusted from 350,000 tons to 500,000 tons and ending stocks increased from 36.36 million tons to 36.51 million tons [4][9]. - Argentina's balance sheets for both 2024/25 and 2025/26 show minimal adjustments, with the 2025/26 ending stocks slightly reduced from 22.85 million tons to 22.84 million tons [4][9]. Global Soybean Supply and Demand - The global soybean production for 2025/26 is revised up from 421.75 million tons to 422.54 million tons, with ending stocks increased from 121.99 million tons to 122.37 million tons [10]. Market Sentiment and Price Outlook - The report indicates that there are no significant data changes from North and South America that would impact market prices, with stable Chinese soybean purchases leading to a lack of rapid increases in U.S. soybean exports [5][12]. - The expectation is for a weak medium to long-term outlook for CBOT soybeans, with potential price support only arising from adverse weather in Brazil or increased Chinese purchases [5][12]. - Domestic supply remains ample, and the impact of recent reserve auctions has been significant, suggesting that shortages are unlikely in the near term [5][12].