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Core Viewpoint - The USD/CAD exchange rate is experiencing a slight upward trend, influenced by the monetary policies of the Bank of Canada and the Federal Reserve, with market expectations leaning towards a potential interest rate cut by the Fed [1][2][3][4] Group 1: Exchange Rate Movements - On December 10, the USD/CAD exchange rate recorded 1.3853, showing a minor increase from the previous day, with a rise of 0.0506% [1] - The exchange rate opened at 1.3852, reaching a high of 1.3854 and a low of 1.3841 during the day [1] - The short-term outlook indicates a stable upward trend for the USD/CAD, with key resistance at the 1.3875 level [2][3] Group 2: Monetary Policy Impact - The Bank of Canada is expected to maintain its policy rate at 2.25%, as officials have indicated that the current rate is "basically in a reasonable range" [1] - Market expectations show an 88% probability that the Federal Reserve will cut rates by 25 basis points in its December meeting, alongside a proposed monthly purchase of $45 billion in Treasury securities [1][3] - The divergence in monetary policies between the U.S. and Canada is a key driver of the USD/CAD fluctuations [1][4] Group 3: Economic Indicators - International oil prices have been low, limiting the appreciation potential of the Canadian dollar, with Brent crude futures recently falling below $70 per barrel [2] - Despite a better-than-expected economic growth rate in Canada for Q3, the growth was primarily driven by reduced imports and increased military spending, highlighting potential risks in consumer spending [2] - The future trajectory of the Canadian dollar will depend on the recovery of the economy and the stabilization of international oil prices [4]