【中泰食品饮料】何长天：需求景气延续，关注新消费下的结构性机会

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the structural prosperity driven by health and functionality in the soft drink industry, with demand expected to remain robust into 2026 [4][14] - As of November 28, 2025, the Shenwan Soft Drink Index has increased by 7.6% year-to-date, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 8.4% and outperforming the Food and Beverage Index by 12.4% [3][13] - The latest PE-TTM for the soft drink industry is approximately 28.3 times, placing it at the 46th percentile over the past three years, indicating a recent decline in valuation levels since Q3 [3][13] Group 2 - The soft drink sector has shown a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 12.8% from 2022 to 2024, ranking third among food and beverage sub-sectors, with revenue growth rates of 2.4%, 17.8%, and 14.4% for Q1 to Q3 of 2025 [6][16] - The demand recovery in the soft drink industry post-pandemic has outperformed other fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG), with sales growth rates of 6.6% and 8.7% for 2023 and 2024, respectively [6][16] - Key factors contributing to the industry's resilience include the rapid growth of new categories such as sugar-free tea and functional beverages, which cater to diverse consumer needs for nutrition and functionality [6][16] Group 3 - The health and functionality trends in soft drinks are expected to continue, with a focus on cost-effectiveness and larger packaging options appealing to consumers [7][17] - The competitive landscape is shifting towards increased concentration and platformization, with leading companies enhancing their market positions through improved revenue resilience and profitability [8][18] - From 2019 to 2024, leading companies have shown a CAGR of 8.6% in revenue, while regional and niche companies have experienced a decline, indicating a strengthening of the competitive advantage for market leaders [8][18] Group 4 - Investment recommendations suggest focusing on structural growth opportunities within the beverage sector, particularly in functional drinks and sugar-free tea, as the macro environment may reach a profitability turning point [9][19] - The continuation of cost advantages in raw materials and packaging is expected to support profitability, with a focus on companies that demonstrate strong competitive strategies and new product developments [9][19] - The main investment themes include selecting high-growth segments and maintaining positions in leading companies to capitalize on industry growth and market share expansion [9][19]