英国经济疲软制约英镑上行

Core Viewpoint - The GBP/USD exchange rate is experiencing narrow fluctuations, influenced by divergent monetary policies of the Bank of England and the Federal Reserve, with market expectations for potential interest rate changes impacting the currency's movement [1][2]. Group 1: Exchange Rate Dynamics - As of December 10, the GBP/USD rate is at 1.3296, showing a slight decline of 0.0003 from the previous trading day, with a daily range of 1.3292 to 1.3304 [1]. - The market is divided on the Bank of England's potential interest rate cut on December 18, with some analysts suggesting a delay until 2026 due to concerns over the labor market [1]. - The Federal Reserve's anticipated interest rate cuts are putting downward pressure on the USD, providing support for the GBP [1]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The UK economy is showing signs of weakness, with a Q3 GDP growth of only 0.1%, indicating a slowdown from the previous quarter, and a decline in the production sector for two consecutive quarters [1]. - Despite support from the services sector, the lack of recovery momentum in the UK economy may limit the Bank of England's policy adjustment capabilities [1]. - Global trade uncertainties are also highlighted as a risk factor for the GBP, suggesting potential for short-term corrections [1]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - The technical outlook for GBP/USD indicates a lack of clear direction, with the 21-week moving average falling below the 55-week moving average, suggesting medium to long-term downward pressure [1]. - Key support levels are identified at 1.2039, while short-term resistance is focused around 1.3350, with a breakthrough potentially leading to new highs for the year [1]. - The core support range is noted between 1.3250 and 1.3220, with a breach potentially triggering deeper adjustments [2]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Short-term movements are expected to be dominated by the upcoming Federal Reserve and Bank of England meetings, which may increase market volatility [2]. - Some institutions are optimistic about a potential rebound for the GBP by year-end, contingent on a deteriorating US economic outlook and resilient UK economic performance [2]. - Long-term factors influencing the GBP include the divergence in monetary policies between the UK and the US, the pace of UK economic recovery, and global risk sentiment [2].