兴业证券：26Q2预计家电外销景气优于内销 推荐石头科技等

Core Viewpoint - The report from Industrial Securities anticipates a mixed performance in the home appliance sector, with domestic sales under pressure due to policy changes and high base effects, while export sales are expected to perform better due to easing tariff impacts and recovering demand in developed and emerging markets [1] Group 1: Home Appliance Overview - The home appliance sector is experiencing internal performance differentiation, with overall operational resilience [1] - Cost factors include rising raw material prices since 2025, while shipping costs have been decreasing, keeping overall cost impacts manageable [1] - Domestic demand is supported by ongoing national subsidies, with retail sales of home appliances significantly outperforming the broader market [1] - Export growth has faced short-term disruptions from tariffs and high base effects, but leading companies are leveraging global layouts and contributions from emerging markets to maintain resilient export performance [1] - The average dividend yield for the home appliance sector is 3.2%, ranking fourth among 31 primary industries in China, highlighting the sector's attractive dividend characteristics [1] Group 2: White Goods - Domestic sales are expected to see a decline in growth rates in the second half of 2025 due to policy impacts and high base effects, with a forecast of a low-to-high growth pattern in 2026 [2] - Continued national subsidy policies in 2026 could further enhance domestic demand and market structure [2] - Export sales are projected to outperform domestic sales in 2026, driven by easing tariffs and increased penetration in emerging markets [2] Group 3: Black Goods - The domestic TV market is undergoing structural optimization, with leading companies driving the adoption of RGB Mini LED products, which are expected to contribute to profit growth [3] - The overseas market is benefiting from sustained growth in emerging markets, with major events like the World Cup expected to boost demand for TVs [3] - Chinese brands are enhancing their marketing efforts and local channel structures to increase overseas market share [3] Group 4: Small Appliances - Domestic sales of small appliances are expected to be supported by national subsidy policies in early 2025, but demand may weaken as subsidies taper off [4] - The geopolitical situation poses risks to small appliance exports, but Chinese companies are well-positioned to manage tariff impacts due to their strong supply chain capabilities [4] Group 5: Robotic Vacuums - The demand for robotic vacuums remains strong, with the continuation of national subsidy policies in 2026 likely to enhance domestic market penetration and improve profitability [5] - Market share is expected to concentrate among leading brands, with a trend of differentiation in marketing strategies [5] - The overseas market for robotic vacuums is projected to maintain steady growth, although internal competition is intensifying [5]