联合国贸发会议：2025年全球贸易额将达35万亿美元，东亚出口最强劲

Core Insights - Agricultural trade experienced strong growth in Q3, particularly in grains, fruits and vegetables, and oilseeds and edible oils [1] - UNCTAD's report projects a 7% increase in global trade by 2025, amounting to an additional $2.2 trillion, reaching a record $35 trillion [1] - Global goods trade is expected to rise by approximately $1.5 trillion, while services trade is projected to grow by about $750 billion, with a nearly 9% increase [1] Trade Growth Projections - In the second half of 2025, global goods and services trade is anticipated to continue growing, driven by East Asia, Africa, and South-South trade [1][5] - Q4 growth is expected to slow, with goods trade increasing by 0.5% and services trade by 2% [1] - UNCTAD forecasts a weakening trade growth momentum in 2026 due to slowing global economic growth, rising debt, and increased trade costs [2] Regional Trade Trends - South-South trade has outpaced the global average, with an 8% growth over the past four quarters, indicating resilience among developing economies [5] - East Asia and Africa showed the strongest growth, with East Asia's exports increasing by 9% and regional trade growing by 10% [6] - Africa's imports grew by 10% over the past four quarters, with exports also performing well, increasing by 6% [6] Sector Performance - Manufacturing, particularly electronics, remains a key driver of economic growth, with a 3% increase in Q3 and a 10% rise over the past four quarters [8] - Agricultural trade grew by 8% in Q3, with grains, fruits and vegetables, and oilseeds and edible oils each seeing significant increases of 11%, 11%, and 9% respectively [8] - The automotive sector continues to struggle, with a 1% decline in trade value in Q3 and a 4% decrease over the past four quarters [9] Commodity Trade Insights - Steel trade saw the largest increase, growing approximately 40% since Q3 2024, while natural resource trade remains sluggish due to falling mineral fuel prices [9] - The current global trade imbalance is severe, with geopolitical factors reshaping trade flows and uncertainty impacting the outlook for 2026 [9] - Trends in "friend-shoring" and "near-shoring" have strengthened in Q3, indicating a shift towards long-term averages seen in 2021 [9]