纯碱：从“卷价格”向“优价值”跨越

Core Viewpoint - The soda ash industry is facing challenges due to oversupply and weak demand, necessitating a shift from price competition to value competition through technological advancements and green manufacturing practices [1][4][5]. Group 1: Supply and Demand Dynamics - By 2025, the soda ash market is expected to experience a supply surplus and weak demand, with high inventory levels indicating a cyclical adjustment phase [2]. - Domestic soda ash production capacity is projected to exceed 40 million tons by 2024, with a production increase of 493.1 million tons year-on-year in the first three quarters of this year [2]. - The core downstream demand for soda ash comes from float glass, which accounts for 35%-40% of total demand, but new construction in the real estate sector has declined, limiting growth [2]. Group 2: Inventory Trends - Starting from March 2024, soda ash inventory rose from 400,000 tons to a peak of 1.9 million tons, stabilizing above 1.4 million tons [3]. - As of November 27, the total inventory of soda ash manufacturers was 1.409 million tons, with delivery warehouse inventory at 583,800 tons [3]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - The industry is facing intensified homogenization, with some companies resorting to price competition, which has compressed overall profit margins [4]. - The price of heavy soda ash peaked at 3,681 yuan per ton in October 2021, but has since fluctuated between 1,218.57 and 1,344.29 yuan in the third quarter of this year [4]. - Natural soda ash is gaining market share due to its cost advantages, increasing from 5% in 2022 to 17% in 2025, positioning it favorably against other production methods [4]. Group 4: Path to Value Competition - The industry must transition from price competition to value competition, emphasizing technological and service upgrades to enhance competitiveness [5]. - There is a pressing need to develop high-value products for high-end sectors like renewable energy, which currently lack sufficient production capacity [5]. - Innovations in clean production methods and resource utilization are being prioritized, with companies exploring technologies such as using industrial waste salt for soda ash production [5]. Group 5: Collaborative Ecosystem and Global Expansion - Companies are shifting from independent operations to collaborative ecosystems, with industry leaders like China Salt Group leading initiatives to foster innovation through partnerships [6]. - Chinese soda ash production technology is being exported globally, exemplified by the launch of Indonesia's first soda ash project utilizing Chinese methods, contributing to the diversification of the global soda ash supply chain [6]. - The future of China's soda ash industry lies in enhancing high-end product supply, promoting green processes, and integrating value chains to establish a competitive edge in the global market [6].