Supply and Demand Data - Domestic operating rate is 76.19% (+0.45%), non-integrated operating rate is 68.26% (+0.61%), and international operating rate is 61.81% (+0.79%) [1] - MTO operating rate is 87.3% (+0.83%), with traditional downstream operating rates slightly increasing [1] - As of December 4, port inventory decreased by 79,700 tons [1] Market Insights - Methanol futures are experiencing low-level narrow fluctuations, with ongoing inventory exchange strategies and a continuous narrowing of price differentials throughout the month [1] - Domestic methanol supply has increased due to the restart of facilities, but profits from coal and gas-based production remain weak [1] - Winter fuel demand is providing support, while Iranian gas restrictions have led to multiple facility shutdowns, totaling 12.2 million tons of capacity [1] Shipping and Import Forecast - Iran is expected to ship 340,000 tons in December, with an estimated 700,000 to 800,000 tons still to be shipped [1] - January imports are projected to exceed 130,000 tons, with shipments slightly above expectations [1] Strategy Recommendations - The recommendation is to reduce positions in 05MTO due to decreased overseas operating rates and new downstream production [1] - Risk factors include an increase in warehouse receipts and accelerated shipments [1]
甲醇：基差坚挺 成交尚可
Jin Tou Wang·2025-12-10 03:06