美联储决议与供需格局主导黄金

Group 1 - Current spot gold trading around $4217, with a slight increase of 0.17%, indicating a short-term bullish trend [1] - The FOMC meeting in December has a nearly 90% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut, but risks of a "hawkish cut" remain, which could lead to a pullback in gold prices [2] - Supply constraints from Russia's ban on gold bar exports by 2026, combined with sustained demand from central bank purchases and ETF inflows, create a dual driver of "supply contraction + demand expansion" [2] Group 2 - Short-term gold price is expected to enter a 1-2 week consolidation phase, with potential for a pullback to the $4155-$4160 support zone if the FOMC decision is met with hawkish opposition [3] - Key resistance levels identified at $4260-$4265 and $4220-$4225, with significant selling pressure expected at these points [3] - Important support levels include $4200, $4170, and $4155-$4160, which are critical for maintaining price stability in the event of a market pullback [3]