Sugar Prices Mixed as India Ramps Up Sugar Output

Sugar Market Overview - Sugar prices are mixed, with March NY world sugar 11 up by 0.01 (+0.07%) and March London ICE white sugar 5 down by 2.90 (-0.68%) [1] - Increased sugar production in India is limiting the upside potential for sugar prices, with Indian sugar production from October to November rising by 43% year-on-year to 4.11 million metric tons (MMT) [1] Brazil's Sugar Production - Brazil's sugar production outlook is bearish for prices, with Conab raising its 2025/26 sugar production estimate to 45 MMT from 44.5 MMT [2] - Brazil's Center-South sugar output in the first half of November increased by 8.7% year-on-year to 983 thousand metric tons (MT) [2] - Cumulative Center-South sugar output through mid-November rose by 2.1% year-on-year to 39.179 MMT [2] India's Ethanol Policy - India's food ministry is considering increasing the price of ethanol for gasoline blending, which could lead to more cane being diverted to ethanol production, thereby reducing sugar supplies [3] Sugar Export Quotas - India's food ministry announced a quota allowing mills to export 1.5 MMT of sugar in the 2025/26 season, lower than previous estimates of 2 MMT [4] Global Sugar Surplus Forecast - The International Sugar Organization (ISO) forecasts a sugar surplus of 1.625 million MT for 2025-26, driven by increased production in India, Thailand, and Pakistan [5] - ISO's forecast indicates a +3.2% year-on-year rise in global sugar production to 181.8 million MT in 2025-26 [5] Price Trends and Market Sentiment - Robust global sugar supplies have negatively impacted sugar prices since early October, with London sugar reaching a 4.75-year low and NY sugar hitting a 5-year low [6] - Czarnikow has increased its global 2025/26 sugar surplus estimate to 8.7 MMT, up by 1.2 MMT from a previous estimate of 7.5 MMT [6]