李鑫恒:美联储利率决议前黄金行情和操作分析

Core Viewpoint - The market is closely watching the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rates, with expectations of a potential rate cut influencing gold and silver prices. The outcome of the Fed's decision could lead to significant market reactions depending on the guidance provided in the dot plot and comments from Chairman Powell [1][2][5]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Decision Impact - If the Federal Reserve cuts rates but the dot plot indicates minimal future cuts (e.g., only 50 basis points or less), it would be considered a "hawkish cut," potentially leading to a strong rebound in the dollar and a decline in gold prices [2][7]. - Conversely, a 25 basis point cut accompanied by a more aggressive future rate cut outlook (e.g., over 75 basis points) would be viewed as a "dovish package," likely causing the dollar to drop and providing upward momentum for gold [2][7]. Group 2: Precious Metals Performance - Silver prices surged over 4%, closing at $60.64 per ounce and reaching a historical high of $60.83 per ounce, driven by strong industrial demand and tight supply conditions [2][7]. - Platinum and palladium also saw price increases of 3% and 2.7%, respectively, reflecting a broader trend in precious metals amid expectations of Fed rate cuts [2][7]. Group 3: Global Central Bank Actions - The Reserve Bank of Australia maintained its interest rates, which supported the Australian dollar, while the European Central Bank hinted at potential rate hikes, indicating a divergence in global monetary policies that may bolster gold prices [3][8]. - The upcoming decisions from the Bank of Japan regarding interest rates are also anticipated to influence market dynamics [3][8]. Group 4: Technical Analysis of Gold - The daily trend for gold remains bullish, with recent price movements indicating continued upward momentum despite a brief downturn [3][8]. - The current trading range for gold is identified between 4170 and 4230, with potential upward targets if the price breaks above 4230 [3][8].