美联储前高级经济学家胡捷：2026年美联储处于降息通道，哈赛特入局有何变数

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to enter a rate-cutting phase next year, with debates surrounding the pace and magnitude of these cuts [1][7]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut during the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting is around 90% [1]. - The market is closely watching Chairman Powell's language during the press conference to gauge future monetary policy direction [1]. - The Fed's dual mandate of maximum employment and price stability complicates its policy decisions, especially given the current economic uncertainties [5][7]. Group 2: Economic Growth and High Interest Rates - The U.S. economy has shown relatively high growth, with a GDP growth rate of 2.8% last year, but is expected to slow down this year [4]. - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts a 2% growth rate for the U.S. economy in 2025, primarily due to the effects of sustained high interest rates [4]. - High interest rates are increasingly suppressing economic activity, with the 30-year mortgage rate remaining above 6% [4]. Group 3: Inflation and Employment Data - Current inflation, as indicated by the September Consumer Price Index (CPI), is approximately 3%, which is above the Fed's 2% target [6]. - The unemployment rate has risen to 4.4%, with signs of weakening in economic data, including a contraction in the manufacturing PMI for nine consecutive months [6]. - The Fed's decision-making is hampered by the absence of key economic data, making it challenging to determine whether to cut rates [5][6]. Group 4: Future Leadership and Policy Direction - The Fed is currently divided under Chairman Powell, contrasting with the more unified decision-making seen under former Chairman Greenspan [7]. - If Hassett, a potential successor to Powell, takes over, he may push for a more aggressive rate-cutting approach, potentially reducing rates by about 100 basis points throughout the year [8]. - The future policy direction will depend on economic trends and data, with the possibility of 1-2 rate cuts expected in the first half of next year [7][8].