机构看金市：12月10日

Group 1: Market Trends and Analysis - The spot silver price has surpassed $60 per ounce, reaching a new high, driven by low supply elasticity, low inventory, strong ETF demand, and a strong willingness for physical delivery [1] - Concerns over tariff risks have led to significant silver shipments to the U.S., exacerbating liquidity tensions in the London market, while rising risk aversion has pushed silver prices to new highs [2] - The expectation of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve is priced in, with key focus on guidance for rate cuts in the first half of 2026 and the appointment of a new Fed chair [1][2] Group 2: Long-term Outlook for Precious Metals - Precious metals are expected to remain a long-term asset allocation choice due to the deterioration of the U.S. dollar credit system and global monetary system restructuring [2] - State Street anticipates gold prices will likely consolidate between $4,000 and $4,500 per ounce in 2026, despite a potential slowdown in price increases next year [3] - The ongoing global debt increase, persistent inflation, and rising long-term yields make gold an attractive hedge asset [3] Group 3: Short-term Price Dynamics - Silver prices are expected to experience a correction before reaching new highs, influenced by changing market dynamics and a decrease in demand from India post-festival season [3] - The one-month borrowing rate for silver in London has exceeded 6.5%, indicating tight supply expectations [2] - The gold-silver ratio is showing signs of slight overselling, suggesting potential volatility in silver prices while maintaining an optimistic outlook [3]