全球铜价创历史新高后回调，供应短缺担忧推动A股铜概念板块波动

Group 1 - Recent global copper prices have reached historical highs, reflecting deep market concerns over supply shortages [1] - Supply disruptions are the core factor driving copper price increases, with multiple mining companies lowering mid-term production forecasts and LME copper registered warehouse receipts decreasing by over 50,000 tons, pushing inventory below the critical threshold of 100,000 tons [1] - Chile's state-owned copper company has significantly raised its long-term copper cathode premium quotes for 2026 compared to 2025, indicating ongoing global supply tightness [1] Group 2 - Strong demand growth is observed in sectors such as electric vehicles, ongoing power grid projects, and accelerated construction of AI data centers, all contributing to steady increases in copper demand [1] - The slow recovery of production capacity at Indonesia's Grasberg mine and limited new copper mining capacity globally are expected to lead to a significant supply gap [1] - The Federal Reserve's anticipated monetary policy, with expectations of a 25 basis point rate cut, is expected to support copper prices, while easing trade tensions and changes in geopolitical situations further enhance market optimism [1] Group 3 - From a technical perspective, the recent copper price pullback is primarily influenced by profit-taking pressures, with market positions continuing to grow and weighted positions exceeding last year's highs, indicating confidence in the long-term price trend [2] - Structural inventory issues persist, with difficulties in returning COMEX stockpiles, leading to relatively fragile effective inventory levels [2] - There is a noticeable divergence in the performance of industry chain companies, with significant gains observed in companies like Shengton Mining and Jiangxi Copper, while short-term adjustment pressures should be monitored [2]