历史数据显示：年底布局胜率较高！

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market's high dividend sector typically experiences a seasonal "bull market" from December to mid-January, driven by historical patterns known as the "calendar effect" [1] Historical Data Insights - The Hong Kong Stock Connect High Dividend Total Return Index shows a high absolute return probability of 90.9% from December to mid-January, with a median increase of 3.4% and an average increase of 4.6% since 2014 [2] - The probability of achieving excess returns compared to the A-share market (CSI 300) is 81.8%, with an average outperformance of approximately 2.1 percentage points [3] - The same probability of 81.8% applies when comparing to the A-share dividend index (CSI Dividend), with an average excess return of about 3.2 percentage points [4] - When compared to the Hong Kong market benchmark (Hang Seng Index), the probability of excess returns is also 81.8%, with an average excess return of approximately 1.6 percentage points [5] Exceptions and Insights - The only year with absolute return losses was from December 2015 to mid-January 2016, attributed to the A-share "leverage bull" collapse and liquidity crisis affecting the Hong Kong market. However, high dividend assets still outperformed the A-share market and the Hang Seng Index during this period [6] - Years where excess returns lagged behind the A-share market occurred mainly during the "fast bull" phases of 2014-2015 and 2020-2021, when growth stocks surged [6] - Excess returns lagging behind the Hang Seng Index were primarily due to significant movements in major stocks like Tencent, rather than a widespread trend [6] Investment Strategy - Investing in high dividend assets in the Hong Kong market at year-end is historically a high-probability strategy with both absolute and relative return potential, influenced by institutional portfolio adjustments and the dividend distribution system [7] - Among the high dividend stocks, those from state-owned enterprises (SOEs) may offer lower valuations and more stable dividend guarantees, as SOEs have implemented market value management and accountability systems [8] - The CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect SOE Dividend Index has a price-to-book ratio (PB) of 0.63, lower than the 0.66 for the broader high dividend index, providing a thicker "safety cushion" [8] - As of December 9, the one-year dividend yield for this index is 6.71%, surpassing the 4.84% yield of 10-year government bonds, with the largest investment vehicle tracking this index being the Hong Kong SOE Dividend ETF [8]