美元流动性紧张局面的成因与展望

Core Viewpoint - Since 2025, the liquidity in the US money market has shifted from relative abundance to a phase of tightness, influenced by the Federal Reserve's quantitative tightening (QT) policy and US fiscal factors. However, factors causing dollar liquidity tightness are showing signs of improvement moving forward [1][18]. Group 1: Current State of Dollar Liquidity - The US money market liquidity has been tightening since 2025, primarily reflected in increased volatility and marginally higher financing costs in the repurchase (repo) market [2][20]. - The secured overnight financing rate (SOFR) has consistently exceeded the effective federal funds rate (EFFR) since September, indicating liquidity pressure in the repo market [2][21]. - The SOFR-EFFR spread reached 36 basis points (BP) on October 31, the highest since October 1, 2019, and has shown signs of remaining elevated, with an average of 9 BP as of November 21, compared to just 1 BP in August [2][20]. Group 2: Causes of Liquidity Tightness - The ongoing impact of the Federal Reserve's QT since June 2022 has transitioned from a quantitative to a qualitative effect, leading to a significant reduction in liquidity [6][27]. - The US Treasury General Account (TGA) balance has fluctuated significantly, with a notable decrease from $818 billion in February to around $3 billion, contributing to liquidity withdrawal from the market [8][26]. - The usage of the Standing Repo Facility (SRF) has surged, with daily averages of $11.5 billion and $6.5 billion during two periods of heightened market tension in 2025, indicating increased reliance on this tool amid tightening conditions [4][22]. Group 3: Implications and Future Outlook - The tightening of dollar liquidity is expected to impact financial markets, with potential adjustments in asset prices across equities, bonds, and cryptocurrencies due to rising financing costs [12][31]. - The Federal Reserve's recent decision to halt QT and the resumption of normal fiscal spending are expected to alleviate liquidity pressures in the near term [15][33]. - Future measures may include enhancing the effectiveness of the SRF and potentially resuming asset purchases to stabilize liquidity conditions, with indications that the Fed is closely monitoring the evolving liquidity landscape [16][34].