需求连续下滑压力较大 铁矿石价格短期内维持震荡

Core Viewpoint - Iron ore futures have shown a significant upward trend, with the main contract reaching 772.5 yuan/ton, marking a substantial increase of 2.32% [1] Group 1: Market Activity - On December 9, the total iron ore transactions at major ports in the country reached 1.137 million tons, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 1.25%. The forward spot transactions amounted to 1.567 million tons [2] - In November 2025, amidst a general economic slowdown and weak demand in the steel industry, the total iron ore exports from major supplying countries (Australia, Brazil, South Africa, and India) amounted to 117 million tons, a decrease of 6% compared to October's 124.45 million tons [2] Group 2: Company Insights - Rio Tinto, the world's largest iron ore supplier, announced that the first batch of goods from the Simandou project has set sail from Guinea [2] Group 3: Institutional Perspectives - Yong'an Futures noted that the iron ore supply and demand dynamics are not significantly contradictory, with seasonal shipping patterns maintained. The expectation of increased shipments from major mines in the fourth quarter may lead to a temporary accumulation of iron ore, while the current iron ore basis is relatively large, indicating that futures prices reflect accumulation expectations [3] - Zhengxin Futures highlighted a dual weakness in supply and demand for iron ore, with significant downward pressure from declining demand. Although some high furnace products remain profitable, the slowdown in seasonal outflows is suppressing steel mill production rates, leading to a forecast of potential price corrections for iron ore [3]