收割孤独，年入22亿：Soul的繁荣与脆弱

Core Viewpoint - Soul is making its fourth attempt to go public, showcasing improved financial performance compared to previous years, but faces a challenging capital market environment that may affect its valuation [1][3]. Group 1: Financial Performance - Soul's projected revenue for 2024 is 2.2 billion yuan, with 1.68 billion yuan generated in the first eight months of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 17.8% [1]. - The company has turned a profit since 2023, with operating profits on an upward trend, and has significantly reduced customer acquisition costs from 1.5 billion yuan in 2021 to 890 million yuan in 2024 [1]. - Despite positive cash flow, the company has a redeemable financial liability of 12.4 billion yuan, which could trigger redemption obligations if the IPO is not completed on time [5][6]. Group 2: Business Model - Soul's revenue model remains heavily reliant on virtual goods and membership services, which account for over 90% of total revenue, despite some investment in AI technologies [7][10]. - The average revenue per paying user has increased by approximately 140% to 104.4 yuan, and the gross margin has consistently remained above 80% [7]. - However, the platform's user payment willingness is low, with a maximum payment rate of 6.5% in the first eight months of 2025, indicating a heavy reliance on a small percentage of high-spending users [8][10]. Group 3: User Engagement and Growth - Soul has 390 million registered users, but user growth has stagnated since reaching 31.6 million monthly active users in 2021, with numbers declining to 26.2 million in 2023 and 2024 [9][14]. - The company is shifting its marketing strategy to focus on global user acquisition, aiming to attract new users through partnerships with other platforms [15]. - The platform's unique selling proposition of "soul socializing" faces challenges as users express concerns about safety and community atmosphere, which may hinder new user engagement [15][21]. Group 4: Challenges and Future Directions - Soul's business model is characterized by a unique yet fragile structure, with a high dependency on top-tier users and a lack of diversified revenue streams [10][12]. - The company needs to balance its initial mission of providing deep emotional connections with the efficiency-driven features it has introduced, which may alienate its core user base [17][21]. - To achieve sustainable growth, Soul must explore new avenues for user acquisition and enhance its value proposition to attract a broader audience [12][22].