Is It Too Late to Chase the IBM-Driven Rally in Confluent Stock?

Core Viewpoint - IBM is acquiring Confluent for $11 billion in cash, valuing each share at a premium of $31, which has led to a nearly 30% increase in Confluent's stock price [1][2] Group 1: Acquisition Details - IBM's acquisition aims to enhance its capabilities in real-time data streaming and processing, which is crucial for scaling its AI models [2] - The deal is expected to close in the first half of 2026, after which Confluent will become a private company [5] Group 2: Market Reaction - Despite the surge in stock price, Confluent shares are still down over 20% from their year-to-date high in early February [1] - The market has largely priced in the acquisition premium, leaving little upside for new investors [4] Group 3: Analyst Insights - Wedbush Securities' analyst Dan Ives views the acquisition as a strategic move to accelerate IBM's AI strategy [2] - The consensus target price for Confluent shares was nearly $28 prior to the acquisition announcement, indicating that the market did not expect shares to trade above the current price [6][7]