国内库存明显增加 短期锡价缺乏持续上冲动能

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for non-ferrous metals saw significant declines, with Shanghai tin futures experiencing fluctuations, reaching a high of 324,210.00 CNY/ton and a low of 312,350.00 CNY/ton, resulting in a 2.22% increase [1] - A survey of 20 domestic tin smelting plants indicates that the refined tin output for November 2025 is projected to be 15,490 tons, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 0.82% and a year-on-year decrease of 6% [2] - The operating rate of smelting plants in November was reported at 61.14%, indicating a cautious production environment [2] Group 2 - As of December 9, LME tin inventory recorded 3,050 tons, a decrease of 25 tons or 0.81% from the previous day, with a cumulative decrease of 95 tons or 3.02% over the past week [2] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange reported a tin warehouse receipt of 7,237 tons on December 9, which is a decrease of 29 tons from the previous trading day [2] - Market sentiment is cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve's meeting, with expectations of a 25 basis point rate cut, but any signs of a slowdown in the rate cut pace for 2026 could negatively impact risk assets [2][3] Group 3 - The ongoing armed conflict in eastern Congo has not shown signs of easing, which has already been priced into the market, with no substantial impact on production yet [3] - High tin prices are further suppressing consumption, leading to a continuous increase in social inventory, indicating a lack of upward momentum for tin prices in the short term [3] - The market is expected to maintain a high-level slight adjustment for tin prices while awaiting further guidance [3]