IMF总裁答一财：上调今明两年中国经济增速

Core Viewpoint - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has shown optimism regarding China's economic resilience, projecting growth rates of 5.0% for 2025 and 4.5% for 2026, which are upward revisions from previous forecasts due to effective macroeconomic stimulus measures and lower-than-expected tariffs on exports [2][3]. Group 1: Economic Growth Projections - The IMF has adjusted its growth forecasts for China, expecting a 5.0% growth in 2025 and 4.5% in 2026, an increase of 0.2 and 0.3 percentage points respectively compared to earlier estimates [2]. - The projected growth rate for 2026 is lower than that of 2025, attributed to potential trade friction impacting export growth and the time required for policy measures to stimulate the economy [2]. Group 2: Economic Resilience and Policy Recommendations - Despite facing multiple shocks in recent years, China's economy has demonstrated significant resilience, primarily due to recently announced policy measures and reduced bilateral tariffs with the U.S. [2]. - The IMF suggests that a transition to a consumption-driven growth model aligns with China's "14th Five-Year Plan" and recommends a more urgent and robust policy package to address risks and maintain steady mid-term growth [2]. - The IMF anticipates that through expansionary macroeconomic policies and structural reforms, China's GDP could increase by approximately 2.5 percentage points by 2030, enhancing living standards and contributing to a stronger global economy [3].