New Bitcoin On-Chain Signals Arrive Ahead of FOMC Meeting and Rate Cut Expectations

Group 1 - Bitcoin traders are observing on-chain signals indicating that older coins are re-entering the market as investors await the Federal Reserve's policy decision [1][2] - Over 2,400 BTC, aged more than ten years, moved recently, representing a dormant supply worth over $215 million, which typically precedes distribution rather than accumulation [2][3] - The Coin Days Destroyed metric indicates that older holders are moving Bitcoins, often to sell into strength, suggesting a potential shift in market dynamics [2][4] Group 2 - Demand previously absorbed the returning supply, but current observations show buyers stepping back while experienced holders are sending coins to the market [3][4] - Historical trends indicate that older supply returning during weak demand has pressured price action, with soft ETF inflows and reduced institutional appetite noted [4][5] - Analysts from Bernstein predict Bitcoin could reach $150,000 by 2026, with a potential peak near $200,000 in 2027, contingent on Federal Reserve actions [5][6] Group 3 - The market direction is heavily influenced by the Federal Reserve's expected rate cuts, which could improve liquidity and support risk assets through early 2026 [5][6] - A delay or smaller rate cut could lead to increased volatility, and combined with revived supply, Bitcoin may experience deeper corrections before any recovery [6]