IMF总裁：上调今明两年中国经济增速

Core Viewpoint - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has completed its Article IV consultation visit to China, projecting economic growth rates of 5.0% for 2025 and 4.5% for 2026, reflecting an upward revision due to macroeconomic stimulus measures and lower-than-expected tariffs on exports [1][2]. Group 1 - The IMF's growth forecast for China in 2025 has been increased by 0.2 percentage points, and for 2026 by 0.3 percentage points compared to the October World Economic Outlook [1]. - IMF President Kristalina Georgieva noted that the expected slowdown in 2026 is attributed to trade friction potentially affecting export growth and the time required for policy measures to stimulate the economy [1]. - The projected growth rate of 4.5% for 2026 remains significantly higher than the IMF's global economic growth forecast of 3.2%, indicating resilience in the Chinese economy [1]. Group 2 - Sonali Jain-Chandra highlighted the resilience of the Chinese economy despite recent shocks, attributing it to recent policy measures and reduced bilateral tariffs between the U.S. and China [2]. - The IMF anticipates that average inflation will rise from 0% in 2025 to 0.8% in 2026 [2]. - To transition to a consumption-driven growth model, the IMF recommends a "more urgent and forceful package of policies" to mitigate risks and maintain robust mid-term growth [2]. - The IMF projects that through expansionary macroeconomic policies and structural reforms, China's GDP could increase by approximately 2.5 percentage points by 2030, enhancing living standards and contributing to a stronger global economy [2].