瑞典10月GDP连续第五个月萎缩 工业订单却同比激增12.1%

Core Viewpoint - Sweden's economy continues to show signs of contraction in October, with a notable structural divergence as industrial orders experience significant growth despite overall economic weakness [1][3]. Economic Indicators - October GDP decreased by 0.3% month-on-month, following a 0.1% decline in September, marking the fifth instance of monthly negative GDP this year [1]. - Year-on-year, October GDP grew by 2.1%, a slowdown from the revised 2.8% in September [1]. Industrial Orders - Total industrial orders in October increased by 12.1% year-on-year, up from a revised 6.7% in the previous month [1]. - Domestic orders surged by 23.2%, compared to a mere 2.1% growth in September, while foreign orders saw a slowdown to 4.6% from 10.4% [1]. Sector Performance - The transportation equipment sector saw a remarkable order increase of 60.6%, and capital goods orders rose by 36.7%, driving overall order growth [1]. - Conversely, orders in the coal and refined petroleum products sector fell by 22.1%, and electrical equipment manufacturing orders decreased by 10.1% [1]. Industrial Output - Seasonally adjusted, industrial orders rose by 4.7% month-on-month, with a cumulative increase of 6.4% year-to-date compared to the same period in 2024 [2]. - Industrial output grew by only 5.9% year-on-year in October, significantly lower than the revised 14.6% in September [2]. - Key manufacturing sectors showed continued weakness, with food, beverage, and tobacco production down by 3.7%, textiles and clothing down by 5.3%, and wood products down by 2.4% [2]. Consumer Spending - Household spending decreased by 0.9% month-on-month in October, reversing the 0.5% growth seen in September [3]. - Year-on-year, household consumption grew by 2.3%, down from the revised 3.6% in September [3]. - Spending in transportation, retail, and motor services fell by 2.4%, while entertainment and cultural services saw a 0.9% decline [3]. Overall Economic Outlook - The Swedish economy is characterized by a complex situation of "demand recovery, production lag, and weak consumption" in October [3]. - The surge in domestic orders suggests potential future production recovery, but the current simultaneous decline in output and consumption indicates an unstable economic recovery foundation [3].