行业洞察 | 光伏“反内卷”行动升级 多晶硅产能整合平台正式启航

Core Viewpoint - The establishment of Beijing Guanghe Qiancheng Technology Co., Ltd. with a registered capital of 3 billion yuan marks the launch of a long-anticipated "polysilicon capacity integration acquisition platform" in the photovoltaic industry, aimed at addressing severe overcapacity and unhealthy competition within the sector [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Context - The polysilicon production capacity has surged from less than 1 million tons to 3.5 million tons over the past five years, exceeding domestic demand by 4-5 times and global demand by 2-3 times [3]. - The price of silicon materials has plummeted from a peak of 300,000 yuan per ton in 2022 to approximately 34,700 yuan per ton by mid-2025, representing a nearly 90% decline [3]. - By the end of 2024, 31 major listed companies in the industry are projected to incur net losses exceeding 57 billion yuan, with total industry debt nearing 2 trillion yuan [3]. Group 2: Policy and Strategic Response - The platform aims to implement a dual approach of "debt-acquisition and flexible capacity reduction" to eliminate redundant capacity, targeting the market exit of approximately 500,000 to 700,000 tons of excess capacity [5]. - The integration platform will focus on asset disposal and debt restructuring without engaging in substantial operational activities [5]. - The initiative is seen as a critical step to restore the industry's capacity utilization rate to over 70% and stabilize the market [5]. Group 3: Historical Comparison and Future Outlook - The situation in China's photovoltaic industry is likened to Japan's cement industry in the 1970s and 1980s, which faced similar challenges of overcapacity and financial losses, leading to successful government-led consolidation efforts [6]. - The strategic value of the integration platform is expected to manifest in three dimensions: alleviating potential debt crises, reversing losses in exports, and providing a governance model that could be replicated in other sectors [6]. - The platform's establishment is anticipated to solidify China's dominant position in the global polysilicon market, with expectations of entering a new phase of "controllable capacity, rational pricing, and technological leadership" in the photovoltaic industry [7].