12月10日金市晚评：美联储今夜恐现“鹰派降息” 黄金谨防凌晨暴击！

Core Viewpoint - The market anticipates a 90% probability of a 0.25% interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, but concerns about persistent inflation may lead to a more hawkish tone in the FOMC statement and Chairman Powell's press conference [1][3] Economic Data and Rate Cut Expectations - The October JOLTs job openings data showed 7.67 million positions, exceeding expectations, indicating resilience in the labor market [3] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve is currently at 87.4%, but there are risks of a "hawkish cut" where Powell may emphasize inflation risks, raising the bar for future easing [3][4] Geopolitical Risks and Gold Support - Ongoing geopolitical tensions, such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict and Middle East issues, continue to provide safe-haven support for gold [3] - Despite short-term fluctuations in risk sentiment, long-term uncertainties are expected to support gold prices [3] Central Bank Gold Demand - Global central bank demand for gold remains strong, with China's central bank increasing its gold reserves for 16 consecutive months [3] - The World Gold Council projects that global central bank gold purchases will remain high through 2026, providing structural support for gold prices [3] Dollar and Gold Price Dynamics - Weak U.S. economic data and rising rate cut expectations are putting pressure on the dollar, which in turn supports gold prices [3] - However, the risk of profit-taking due to rapid short-term price increases in gold should be monitored [3] Federal Reserve Communication and Market Impact - The upcoming policy statement may emphasize "uncertainty" regarding future paths and reiterate "data dependence," which could signal a more cautious approach to rate cuts [4] - Any new language regarding the "magnitude and timing of adjustments" could indicate a more hawkish stance, potentially supporting the dollar and suppressing gold prices [4] Internal Disagreement within the Fed - There may be a "dual divergence" within the Fed, with some members favoring no change and others advocating for larger cuts, reflecting high uncertainty in policy paths [4] - Powell's communication style post-rate cut will be crucial, as any emphasis on inflation risks could reverse current dovish sentiment, leading to a rebound in the dollar and higher bond yields, which would pressure gold and silver prices [4] Technical Analysis of Gold - Current gold prices are around $4199.29 per ounce, with resistance at $4220 and support near $4150 [2][6] - Short-term trading dynamics indicate a potential for upward movement if key resistance levels are broken, but caution is advised due to the risk of a pullback [6]