【BOYAR观察】豆粕上涨20-30元/吨！报告中性、通关延长，豆粕近强远弱

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the USDA's December soybean supply and demand report maintains the forecasts for U.S. soybean production, export volume, and ending stocks, with ending stocks remaining at 290 million bushels [3][7] - South American soybean production expectations are strong, leading to weak U.S. soybean export demand, causing U.S. soybean prices to drop to a low not seen in over a month [3][7] - The global soybean production forecast has been raised to 423 million tons, an increase of 793,000 tons, with ending stocks also raised to 122 million tons, an increase of 380,000 tons [7] Group 2 - U.S. soybean production for the 2025/26 season is estimated at 116 million tons, with a harvested area of 81.1 million acres and a yield of 53.0 bushels per acre [7] - Brazil's soybean production is forecasted at 175 million tons, with exports of 112.5 million tons and a crushing volume of 59 million tons [9] - Argentina's soybean production is estimated at 48.5 million tons, with exports adjusted to 8.25 million tons and crushing volume adjusted down to 41 million tons [9] Group 3 - China's soybean production is estimated at 21 million tons, with imports expected to remain high at 112 million tons and a crushing volume of 108 million tons [9] - Domestic soybean meal prices have stopped declining and increased by 20-30 yuan per ton, with near-term futures contracts showing significant price increases [5][8] - The report indicates a neutral supply-demand outlook, with strong South American soybean production and weak export demand leading to a bearish trend in U.S. soybean prices [7][9]