美联储降息、扩表倒计时，交易员备战“圣诞反弹”

Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The market is closely watching whether the Federal Reserve will restart balance sheet expansion to increase market liquidity, with a nearly 90% probability of a rate cut in December [1][3] - Goldman Sachs anticipates a third consecutive rate cut of 25 basis points, bringing the federal funds rate to a range of 3.5%–3.75% due to insufficient job growth and rising unemployment [3][4] - The Fed's balance sheet has decreased to $6.5 trillion, with bank reserves at $2.9 trillion, leading to speculation about potential quantitative easing or reserve management purchases [5] Group 2: Market Sentiment and Seasonal Trends - Despite a sell-off in November, traders are preparing for a "Santa Rally" in December, historically a strong month for U.S. stocks [6] - The Nasdaq 100 index has a higher average return in December compared to its annual average, with a 57.7% probability of positive returns [6][7] - The S&P 500 index shows a 75.6% probability of positive monthly returns, indicating more stable performance compared to the Nasdaq [7] Group 3: Wall Street Outlook for 2026 - Morgan Stanley is optimistic about the S&P 500, projecting a target of 7800 points over the next 12 months, supported by strong earnings growth [8] - Bank of America takes a more cautious stance, forecasting a target of 7100 points for the S&P 500 by the end of 2026, citing concerns over liquidity and capital expenditure [9] - Barclays notes a continuing divergence in earnings, with AI leaders showing resilience while smaller companies may have more room for recovery [10]