OEXN:BTC稳势中的隐性疲态

Core Viewpoint - The current market for BTC is characterized by a lack of strong buying pressure, with prices stabilizing around $92,000 due to reduced selling pressure, but overall demand remains insufficient for a sustained upward trend [1][4]. Market Conditions - BTC is currently trading at approximately $92,214, with a price recovery primarily supported by spot demand, indicating that selling pressure is gradually exhausting [7]. - ETH is trading around $3,296, showing a daily increase of 6%, driven by short covering and improved market sentiment [7]. - The overall market exhibits a "stable yet weak" characteristic, with short-term volatility suppressed but lacking trend momentum and deep structural support [3][7]. ETF and Capital Flows - After experiencing over $1.1 billion in redemptions in November, U.S. ETFs saw a net inflow of approximately $56.5 million on December 9, marking the first stabilization in weeks [2][6]. - Despite this improvement in capital flow, the recovery remains limited, with on-chain activity and derivatives market indicators showing low market participation and demand [2][6]. Technical Indicators - The 14-day RSI has returned to neutral territory, indicating that BTC has moved away from extreme selling conditions, but this only suggests price recovery rather than a trend reversal [2][6]. - Current market indicators, including negative CVD and declining open interest in futures, reflect a low level of market engagement and a lack of genuine demand [2][6]. Future Outlook - The market is likely to remain in a range-bound state unless there is a significant increase in long-term holders and institutional capital, as well as substantial improvements in on-chain activity [4][8]. - Any price recovery is viewed as a natural adjustment following the release of selling pressure rather than a new trend driven by buying activity [4][8].