GTC泽汇资本:贵金属强势上行与政策不确定性共振

Core Viewpoint - The recent strong structure in the precious metals market is being reinforced, with gold and silver experiencing technical buying momentum, indicating a robust upward trend driven by increased capital, rising volatility, and safe-haven demand [1][2]. Market Trends - Gold February contract price has risen to approximately $4244.40, while silver March contract has reached a historic high of $61055 [1][2]. - The short-term and medium-term trend structures remain in a complete upward channel, with technical indicators strengthening and accumulating buying momentum [1][2]. FOMC Meeting Insights - The upcoming FOMC meeting is a focal point for the market, with about 90% of participants expecting a 0.25 percentage point rate cut; however, the key to market volatility lies in the wording of the policy statement and the tone of the subsequent press conference [3][4]. - The unexpected delay in producer price data has heightened uncertainty regarding inflation, prompting the market to reassess policy paths and increasing hawkish expectations [3][4]. External Market Conditions - The U.S. dollar index has slightly strengthened, while crude oil remains stable around $58.25, and the 10-year Treasury yield is stable at approximately 4.15%, indicating a macroeconomic environment in a rebalancing phase [4]. Trading Structure - The price discovery mechanism for precious metals relies on both spot and futures systems, with year-end liquidity tightening making contract switching and position structure changes more pronounced [2][4]. - The December gold futures remain the most liquid contract, reflecting accelerated position management by institutions ahead of the delivery period [4]. Technical Analysis - Gold's bullish target is focused on breaking the historical high of $4433, with key support at around $4100; short-term support and resistance are at approximately $4197.80 and $4285, respectively [2][4]. - Silver shows a more pronounced bullish advantage, with a clear daily flag structure and a target of $6250, while support is found in the range of $5900 to $5685, indicating a stronger trend and greater volatility [2][4]. Overall Market Outlook - The rise in precious metals is attributed to a resonance of fundamental expectations, macroeconomic uncertainties, and technical structures [2][4]. - As the FOMC meeting approaches, market volatility may increase, and the strong structure of precious metals is expected to continue in the short term [2][4].