今夜美联储会降息多少？市场关注未来政策路径指引

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to announce a rate cut in December, but the focus of the upcoming meeting will be on future policy guidance and how Chairman Powell balances conflicting signals between hawkish and dovish stances [1][2]. Group 1: Market Expectations - The market anticipates a nearly 90% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December, following unexpected negative ADP employment data and a weaker-than-expected PCE price index [2]. - The internal divisions within the Federal Reserve are significant, with some officials skeptical about continuing rate cuts while inflation remains above the 2% target, potentially leading to an increase in dissenting votes during the meeting [2][4]. Group 2: Economic Forecasts - The quarterly economic projections and the dot plot released during the meeting will be crucial for understanding the Fed's outlook on economic growth, inflation, and unemployment rates through 2026 [2]. - The market currently prices in approximately 52 basis points of rate cuts (around two cuts) by 2026, indicating a cautious approach to future monetary policy [2][8]. Group 3: Balance Sheet Management - Future asset and liability management strategies are expected to be as important as the rate decision itself, with potential plans for the Fed to start purchasing short-term Treasury bills in January 2026 to manage liquidity [3]. Group 4: Policy Dilemmas - The Fed faces a classic policy dilemma with persistent inflation pressures and a cooling job market, leading to increased internal disagreements [4][5]. - Powell's communication during the meeting is anticipated to signal how the Fed will navigate these conflicting goals, with expectations of a "hawkish rate cut" approach [4][6]. Group 5: Future Rate Cuts - Analysts suggest that the pace of rate cuts may slow in the first half of next year, with significant monetary easing potentially not occurring until after June 2026 [7][8]. - The upcoming leadership change at the Fed adds another layer of uncertainty to future monetary policy, with speculation about the next chair's potential dovish leanings [9].