【环球财经】研报：新加坡具备“区域避险港”条件 部分政策韧性优于瑞士模式

Core Viewpoint - The AMRO report highlights Singapore's strong institutional foundation and robust fiscal status, positioning it as a "Regional Safe Haven" despite its limited market size compared to global safe havens like Switzerland [1][2]. Group 1: Institutional Advantages - Singapore ranks first in governance indicators related to rule of law and regulatory quality within the ASEAN+3 region, providing a stable investment environment for safe-haven behavior [2]. - The country holds a AAA sovereign credit rating, a substantial net international investment position, and a strong fiscal framework characterized by fiscal prudence, further solidifying its status as a safe haven [2]. - During the COVID-19 pandemic and the announcement of U.S. tariff policies in 2025, Singapore's sovereign credit default swap (CDS) spreads remained nearly unchanged, contrasting sharply with the significant widening of spreads in emerging markets, indicating stability similar to traditional global safe-haven assets [2]. Group 2: Regional Hub Role - AMRO emphasizes that Singapore is more of a "regional" rather than a "global" safe haven, as the Singapore dollar's share in global foreign exchange trading is relatively small compared to major safe-haven currencies like the U.S. dollar and Swiss franc [3]. - The limited liquidity restricts Singapore's financial system from absorbing large-scale global capital reallocations, making it less likely to become a universal destination for capital flight to safety [3]. - The external asset and liability positions of Singapore's banking system are primarily concentrated in East Asia, with relatively small exposure to Europe and the Americas, reinforcing its role as a regional hub during periods of pressure [3]. Group 3: Policy Comparisons with Switzerland - The report contrasts Singapore's policy approach with Switzerland's during significant capital inflows, noting that Switzerland faced substantial appreciation pressure on the Swiss franc, leading to negative interest rates that harmed bank profitability and pension funds [4]. - Singapore adopted a more flexible policy framework, managing the nominal effective exchange rate of the Singapore dollar (S$NEER) to guide gradual adjustments, thus avoiding speculative risks associated with rigid exchange rate commitments [4]. - Singapore's liquidity management involves issuing government securities and central bank bills to offset liquidity impacts, with surplus reserves allocated for long-term investments, effectively limiting valuation volatility on the central bank's balance sheet [4]. - Unlike Switzerland, which relied on negative interest rates to curb appreciation pressure, Singapore employs macroprudential tools to manage asset price risks, successfully controlling real estate market overheating without causing widespread market distortions [4]. Group 4: Conclusion - AMRO concludes that Singapore, as a regionally robust center, can effectively withstand localized shocks, demonstrating greater resilience in capital flow management compared to the Swiss model [5].