白银疯涨破60美元创新高！盛宝银行：多重利好共振 2026年牛市仍可期

Core Viewpoint - Silver prices are projected to exceed $60 per ounce by 2025, driven by favorable monetary policy, market structure, and supply-demand dynamics, with a continued bullish outlook into 2026, although potential risks must be monitored [1] Group 1: Price Movement and Market Dynamics - As of the report, spot silver has risen approximately 0.3% to $61.03 per ounce, marking a year-to-date increase of 111%, contrasting with a 0.3% decline in spot gold to $4199.46 per ounce [1] - The surge in silver prices is attributed to supply tightness, insufficient price elasticity in industrial demand, and policy-driven market mismatches, leading to a price increase that exceeds what gold price movements alone can explain [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Fundamentals - The current loose monetary policy cycle supports silver prices, while ongoing tightness in the spot market persists [1] - Increased demand from sectors such as electrification, solar energy, electric vehicles, and data centers has outpaced mining capacity, further highlighting the supply-demand imbalance [1] - The inclusion of silver in the U.S. critical minerals list underscores this supply-demand disparity [1] Group 3: Risks and Valuation Concerns - The high valuations in the artificial intelligence sector pose a risk; a potential valuation correction could significantly reduce silver demand from chip and data center infrastructure, impacting overall market risk appetite [1] - The gold-silver ratio has fallen to around 68, aligning with the 30-year historical average, indicating that silver has moved out of a significantly undervalued range [2] - In a normalized market environment where supply-demand constraints weaken, silver may enter a consolidation phase, with some funds potentially reallocating to gold, although both metals remain valuable for hedging against fiscal risks, inflation, and geopolitical volatility [2] Group 4: Technical Analysis - Market participants are closely monitoring whether silver can maintain a position within the $54-$55 range [2] - If silver prices can break above this range and hold, it would strengthen expectations for an upward shift in trading ranges for 2026, especially as gold prices are anticipated to approach $5000, which would also support silver prices [2]