欧元区经济增长韧性超预期！拉加德预告：下周或再调高展望

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to release a more optimistic economic growth forecast in its upcoming report, as indicated by President Christine Lagarde, highlighting the resilience of the Eurozone in the face of U.S. tariff impacts [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Outlook - Lagarde noted that the Eurozone, consisting of 20 countries, has shown unexpected resilience against U.S. tariffs, with no retaliatory measures implemented by the EU and a stable euro exchange rate [1]. - The ECB has already raised its growth expectations in its recent economic forecast, with further upward adjustments anticipated in December [1]. - Eurozone GDP grew by 0.3% quarter-on-quarter in Q3, surpassing initial estimates [3]. Group 2: Interest Rate Expectations - Following Lagarde's comments, bond prices in the Eurozone fell, with the yield on French 10-year bonds rising above 3.60%, reaching a nine-month high [3]. - Market expectations for a 25 basis point rate hike by the ECB next year increased from 30% to 40% [3]. - ECB policymakers are increasingly confident that the benchmark interest rate can remain unchanged in the foreseeable future due to economic resilience [3]. Group 3: Policy Framework Discussion - In response to President Macron's proposal for adjusting the Eurozone's monetary policy framework to balance inflation with economic growth and employment, Lagarde acknowledged the importance of the discussion but emphasized that maintaining price stability is the ECB's core mission [4]. - Lagarde stated that the current policy framework provides sufficient space for the ECB to consider economic growth, employment, innovation, productivity, and climate change in its decision-making [4]. Group 4: Support for Ukraine - Lagarde positively evaluated the EU's proposal to use frozen Russian assets to aid Ukraine's defense, describing it as the most compliant with international law she has seen [5]. - She emphasized the need to clearly communicate the rationale behind this action to ensure that investors understand it is a unique case rather than arbitrary asset seizure [5].