SPARE CAPACITY PERSISTS GLOBALLY, WHILE NORTH AMERICA REPORTS A STEEPER PULLBACK IN MANUFACTURING DEMAND, SIGNALLING WEAK CONDITIONS HEADING INTO 2026: GEP GLOBAL SUPPLY CHAIN VOLATILITY INDEX

Core Insights - The GEP Global Supply Chain Volatility Index indicates that global supply chains remained underutilized in November 2025, with a headline index of -0.29, suggesting a weakening outlook for early 2026 [1][3][8] Regional Analysis - North America: The index fell to -0.53 from -0.45, marking the highest degree of underutilized supplier capacity since March, indicating a softening manufacturing activity [9] - Europe: The index dipped to -0.33 from -0.25, reflecting ongoing fragility in the industrial economy, with manufacturers in Germany and France showing reluctance to expand purchasing [4][9] - Asia: The index rose to -0.16 from -0.30, signaling less spare capacity than in October, with Chinese factory purchasing slowing down, although ASEAN countries like Indonesia and Vietnam showed resilience [4][9] Demand and Supply Dynamics - Global factories' purchases of commodities and intermediate goods slowed in November, primarily due to reduced factory buying in China and weak demand in the US and major European economies [14] - Reports of stockpiling due to price or supply fears remain historically low, indicating limited concerns about purchasing price inflation or shortages [14] - The global item shortages tracker is well below its long-term trend, suggesting healthy supply levels for manufacturers, with minimal challenges in sourcing [14] Cost Pressures and Market Conditions - With excess capacity globally, companies are expected to face limited purchasing cost pressures, excluding tariff-related effects, as shortages remain minimal and stockpiling activity is low [5][8] - Transportation costs increased slightly in November but remained in line with historical averages, indicating stable logistics conditions [14]