白银迈入60美元时代

Core Viewpoint - The international silver price has officially entered the "60 USD era," with significant increases in both COMEX silver futures and spot silver prices, indicating a strong bullish market for silver [1][2]. Group 1: Price Movements - As of December 10, COMEX silver futures reached a peak of 62.14 USD/ounce, while spot silver hit a record of 61.6 USD/ounce [1]. - Year-to-date, COMEX silver futures have seen a cumulative increase of 109%, significantly outpacing gold's 60% rise during the same period [1]. - Since early November, silver prices have surged over 20%, with both COMEX and domestic silver futures rising by 24% [2]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The recent price surge is attributed to two main factors: silver's inclusion in the U.S. critical minerals list and an increase in the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations from 40% to 95% [2]. - Speculative funds have heavily entered the silver market, contributing to the short-term bullish trend [2]. - Exchanges have responded by raising margin requirements and adjusting price limits for silver futures [2]. Group 3: Inventory and Supply - Global silver inventories have significantly decreased, with COMEX silver inventory dropping from 16,500 tons to 14,200 tons in two months, marking a decline of over 2,300 tons [3]. - As of the end of November, silver inventories on the Shanghai Futures Exchange and the Shanghai Gold Exchange have reached near 10-year lows [3]. - The gold-silver ratio has rapidly declined to around 72, the lowest since August 2021, indicating a shift in market dynamics [3]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that silver prices may continue to rise due to ongoing factors such as the potential for a renewed interest rate cut cycle by the Federal Reserve and persistent supply constraints [3]. - However, there is a need to monitor the delivery situation of COMEX silver and changes in inventory levels closely, as any easing of supply tightness could lead to significant price volatility [4]. - Standard Chartered Bank notes that while leasing rates remain high, they have decreased from October levels, indicating a potential easing of market tensions [5].