债市小幅回暖，银行一项指标成后续机构关注焦点

Core Viewpoint - The bond market has shown signs of recovery after a period of decline, with most bond yields experiencing slight decreases, indicating a potential stabilization in market sentiment [1][3][9]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of December 10, most bond varieties have shown an upward trend after several days of decline, with yields on government bonds from one year to ultra-long term decreasing by less than 1 basis point [1][9]. - The 30-year government bond yield had previously increased by 4 basis points on December 4, and the price of the 30-year government bond futures hit a yearly low of 111.69 yuan on December 8 [1][9]. - The 10-year government bond yield fluctuated around 1.84% after rising from 1.82% on December 1 to a peak of 1.86% on December 4 [1][9]. Group 2: Institutional Behavior - Market participants noted that the fluctuations in the 30-year government bond were primarily driven by differing behaviors among institutions and trading sentiment rather than fundamental changes [2][10]. - Traditional buyers such as banks and insurance companies have shown reduced buying power recently, contributing to the market's cooling [2][10]. - The anticipated implementation of new regulations for public funds has created uncertainty, affecting institutional behavior and leading to a decrease in demand for short-term bonds [2][10]. Group 3: Regulatory Impact - The new public fund sales regulations are expected to increase short-term redemption fees, which may negatively impact the liquidity management of institutions that typically use short-term bond funds [2][10]. - Concerns about the timing of the new regulations and their impact on market dynamics remain a significant focus for investors [11]. Group 4: ΔEVE Indicator - The ΔEVE indicator, which measures the economic value fluctuations of banks due to interest rate changes, is approaching regulatory limits for major banks, prompting them to adjust their bond holdings [12][13]. - As of the end of 2024, major state-owned banks have ΔEVE ratios exceeding 14%, nearing the 15% regulatory threshold [13]. - The ongoing issuance of long-term local government bonds is expected to maintain pressure on banks' ΔEVE ratios, influencing their investment strategies [12][13].