明年降息没戏了？拉加德：欧洲央行下周可能上调经济增长预期

Group 1: Economic Outlook - The European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde expressed optimism about the Eurozone's economic outlook, indicating that the region is in a "rather good position" with output levels "close to potential" [2][9] - The Eurozone's GDP grew by 0.3% in the third quarter, exceeding initial estimates, with domestic demand playing a crucial role in mitigating external shocks [2][9] - Lagarde suggested that the upcoming forecast adjustment could mark the second consecutive upward revision, reinforcing market expectations for the ECB to maintain restrictive interest rates [2][9] Group 2: Policy Shift and Market Repricing - The ECB's officials have adopted a more hawkish stance, leading to a significant market repricing, with traders no longer expecting any rate cuts next year [3][10] - Market pricing indicates a rise in the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike next year from 30% to 40%, and a 50% chance of rate hikes by the end of 2026 [3][10] - German bond yields have risen, with the 5-year yield increasing by 5 basis points to 2.52% and the 10-year yield rising by 3.6 basis points to 2.88% [3][10] Group 3: Global Bond Market Trends - The global bond market has followed the European market's trend, with yields climbing to their highest levels since 2009, reflecting investor expectations that the global rate-cutting cycle may soon end [5][12] Group 4: Central Bank Mission Debate - Lagarde responded to French President Macron's call for a new monetary policy approach, emphasizing that the ECB's primary mission remains price stability, unlike the Federal Reserve's broader focus [6][13] - She acknowledged that discussions about treaty changes are interesting but reiterated that the current framework allows the ECB to consider growth, employment, and other factors in its decision-making [6][13]