2026债市，或比预期好一点

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the bond market in 2025 is expected to face significant challenges, transitioning from a "bullish long, bearish short" to a "bullish short, bearish long" market, making it increasingly difficult to generate returns [1][38] - Key variables affecting the bond market include "expansive fiscal policy," "stable monetary policy," "strong risk appetite," "strict regulation," and "weak reality," which are expected to shape the market dynamics in 2026 [1][38] - The fiscal deficit for 2025 is projected to increase by 2.9 trillion yuan compared to 2024, reaching a historical high since 2021, with a total deficit of 5.66 trillion yuan [1][39] Group 2 - The "expansive fiscal policy" is likely to continue into 2026, with a projected broad fiscal deficit of 15.1 to 15.9 trillion yuan, although the contribution to economic growth may be more stable than in 2025 [2][50] - The monetary policy in 2025 acted more as a supporting role, with expectations for 2026 to potentially see a shift towards a more expansive monetary policy, which could exceed market expectations [3][55] - Regulatory measures in 2025 have led to stricter behaviors among institutions, impacting the bond market, with asset management institutions likely to maintain lower bond allocation ratios [4][56] Group 3 - The macroeconomic indicators have shown marginal weakening since early 2025, but have not significantly influenced asset pricing, as the bond market has been more closely tied to equity market performance [5][38] - The bond market is expected to experience a "slow start, fast finish" rhythm in 2026, with potential for significant movements in the second and third quarters as monetary policy evolves [6][38] - The overall sentiment in the bond market is anticipated to remain cautious, with the need to monitor macroeconomic events that could trigger changes in monetary policy [6][55]